N-deal with Russia may provide firm fuel supply guarantees

An agreement on India-Russia civil nuclear cooperation that goes beyond the "123 pact" with US in offering India much firmer fuelsupply guarantees even in the event of the bilateral arrangement being called off is likely to be a highlight of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Moscow.

There is a keen sense of anticipation that a 123-like agreement with Russia, which has been in the works for a while, will be sealed during Singh's annual summit with President Dmitri Medvedev and talks with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. The suggestion that there will be strong fuel supply guarantees indicates that the contracts will remain valid even in the event of an Indian nuclear test.

Sources speaking on background said the language of the pact with Russia was expected to be "forward-looking" and it would set a new benchmark in India's nuclear cooperation agreements. It will be wide-ranging, covering India's rights to reprocessing and high-end technology associated with nuclear trade.

The other big takeaway is expected to be a finalisation of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier deal that has been defying Indian and Russian negotiators for a while now. There were indications that a price that both nations are "comfortable" with had been arrived at which could be between $2.2 billion and $2.9 billion. "There has been tremendous work on this score and a middle ground is now in sight," said sources.

The 123-like agreement may see India's nuclear trade gather momentum even as its discussions with US on a reprocessing facility remain caught up in nitty-gritty. The much firmer fuel supply agreements India is looking forward to will help contain the fear that India's strategic options are sharply curtailed after its nuclear deal with US. The US pact makes it amply clear that all cooperation would be off in case India tested and this also meant return of equipment.

While the authors of the India-US agreement expect that deepening economic engagement will make it much harder for Washington to abruptly call off nuclear cooperation, there is little doubt on what American law specifies. A test is bound to see even Russia act in keeping with the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a body that was set up after Pokhran-I to contain exports to non-P5 nations.

The fuel supply guarantees will help India drive better bargains in nuclear trade with other nations and perhaps help speed up the detail of agreements pending with US. There is now a real possibility of US firms, who had ardently pushed for the nuclear deal, falling behind in the race for multi-billion contracts as India shops for nuclear reactors and dual-use technology that had been denied to it for long. The pact with Russia will replace the older 1988 agreement under which Russia is supplying two reactors at Koodankulam in Tamil Nadu.